By: Richmond Keelson, Canada, Ontario

The New Patriotic Party (NPP), even in its deepest slumber, is awakening to a stark reality—one that will shape its spirited comeback bid in 2028. However, the question of who will lead the party into that election is already fueling intense political calculations among stakeholders, supporters, and sympathizers. Will the party stick with its 2024 nominee, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, or will a new contender emerge? 

Given the NPP’s historical trajectory, one would expect Dr. Bawumia to be the obvious choice—but is it really that straightforward? Then-candidate John Agyekum Kufuor made two determined attempts before securing the presidency on his second try. After losing in 1996, he emerged victorious in 2000. Similarly, Nana Akufo-Addo faced defeats in 2008 and 2012 before finally winning in 2016.

For Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, 2024 marked his first attempt. By conventional wisdom and historical precedent within the NPP, he should be the de facto nominee in 2028—if the party stays true to its established pattern of giving its candidates multiple chances at the presidency. Already, Bawumia’s second bid attempt is being shored up by some of his faithful backers like Nana Ayew Afriyie and, Annor Dompreh, the minority chief whip. 

The Akan Tag of the NPP

There is an uncomfortable truth that, once unveiled, could determine whether Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia remains the best bet for the opposition NPP in 2028. In its attempt to break the long-standing perception of being an “Akan party,” the NPP made a bold move by electing Bawumia as its 2024 presidential candidate. The hope was that by defeating this label, the party would script a historic moment that resonated with the broader Ghanaian electorate.

An elated NPP General Secretary, Justin Kodua Frimpong, proclaimed after Bawumia’s nomination victory that the party had shattered the myth of being an Akan-dominated entity. He emphasized that for the first time, the NPP was heading into a presidential election with a non-Akan candidate—specifically, someone from Northern Ghana, a region historically considered fit only for producing running mates within the NPP and its predecessor, the Popular Front Party (PFP) of the Third Republic.

The trend is well documented. In 1979, the PFP’s presidential candidate, Victor Owusu—an Akan—chose Alhaji Yakubu Tali, the Tolon Na, as his running mate. Similarly, in 1992, the NPP’s first presidential nominee, Prof. Albert Adu Boahen, also an Akan, selected Rowland Issifu Alhassan as his vice-presidential candidate. In the 2000 elections, another northerner, Alhaji Aliu Mahama, became the running mate to J.A. Kufuor, an Akan flagbearer. More recently, Nana Akufo-Addo, a son of Kyebi from the Akan ethnic group, chose Dr. Bawumia as his vice-presidential nominee.

This recurring pattern only fueled national discourse that the NPP was, in essence, an Akan party. It was against this backdrop that the party, backed by the strategic maneuvering of President Akufo-Addo, sought to rewrite history by electing Bawumia as its 2024 presidential candidate. For once, the NPP seemed willing to challenge the long-standing notion that Northern political figures within its ranks were only fit for secondary roles.

Bawumia and the Forbidden Truth 2028

For many of Dr. Bawumia’s supporters who are already projecting a second bid for the presidency in 2028, a harsh reality may await. There is a growing undercurrent of agitation within the party, with some arguing that another Bawumia candidacy could push the NPP into political oblivion. At the heart of this conversation is the belief that the party compromised its traditional base and values to back Bawumia’s historic candidacy. 

Now, following his resounding defeat, some voices within the NPP are calling for a return to the status quo by selecting an Akan flagbearer. Critics argue that Bawumia failed to capitalize on the unprecedented opportunity given to him—one that came at the expense of prominent Akan contenders such as Alan Kyerematen, Kennedy Agyapong, Kwabena Agyepong, Boakye Agyarko, and others. Therefore, the debate over the party’s leadership in 2028 is already shaping up to be a contentious one.

However, the harshest and most forbidden truth—one that could doom Bawumia’s 2028 candidacy before it even begins—is his Muslim faith. Political hypocrisy runs deep when it comes to religion as a determining factor in the NPP’s selection of a presidential candidate, just as it does in the larger Ghanaian society. Former Vice President, Aliu Mahama faced a similar fate in the NPP’s 2008 selection process. 

At the time, some party stalwarts opposed his candidacy on the flimsy grounds that, as a Muslim, he would struggle to win over the predominantly Christian electorate. This religious bias ultimately cost him the chance to lead the NPP in 2008. A similar narrative emerged in the lead-up to the NPP’s 2024 presidential primaries, with some voices raising concerns about Bawumia’s faith.  

However, those objections were swiftly overshadowed by what many describe as a grand “Bawumia coup”—orchestrated by the influential Akyem faction within the NPP and bolstered by unlimited financial backing from President Akufo-Addo’s inner circle. While Bawumia ultimately secured the 2024 candidacy, the question remains: will these concerns resurface in 2028, posing yet another challenge to his presidential ambitions? He faces two formidable obstacles—ethnicity and faith—both of which could shape the NPP’s decision on its next flagbearer.

The Difference Between NPP and NDC

Ghana’s two leading political parties, the NPP and NDC, each draw their electoral strength from distinct regions. While the NDC’s traditional stronghold is the Volta Region, the NPP’s numerical advantage lies in the Ashanti Region. However, the key difference is in the weight of these strongholds. An overwhelming voter turnout for the NPP in Ashanti far outweighs the NDC’s support in Volta. 

In fact, a favorable 85% voter turnout for the NPP in Ashanti, combined with a modest boost from the Eastern Region, often places the NPP in a strong position to secure the presidency. Same, however, cannot be said for the NDC. A landslide victory in Volta, even with strong performances in other regions, does not necessarily guarantee a presidential win. 

This conundrum presents a significant dilemma for Bawumia. Should the NPP risk alienating its dominant Akan and Christian voter base by selecting Bawumia as its candidate in 2028? On the other hand, the NDC, with its broader national appeal, must not only maintain its stronghold in Volta but also secure additional regional victories to guarantee a presidential win. 

Perhaps, one crucial yet often overlooked factor in Ghanaian politics, and which the NDC may need to consider seriously, is the role of religion in presidential choices. While frequently downplayed, the religious factor remains a hidden yet powerful force in Ghana’s political landscape.