Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) is expected to announce the consumer price inflation (measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) with 2012 as the base year with an index of 100) for the month of November 2017 in the coming days. GN Research analysts expect it to be between 11.75% and 12.10%.
Latest figures from the GSS shows that the CPI increased from 183.5 in November 2016 to 205.1 in November 2017. This means a year – on – year inflation rate of 11.70% in November 2017as against the 11.60% recorded for October 2017. This represents a monthly increase of 0.10 percentage point.
The Food and non-alcoholic beverages group recorded a year-on-year inflation rate of 7.9% representing 0.3 percentage point decrease from the 8.2% recorded in October 2017. For October, Vegetables and the Fish and sea food subgroup group recorded inflation rate higher than the group’s average rate of 7.9% within the food and non-alcoholic beverages group. They recorded an inflation rate of 9.0% and 8.8% respectively.
On the other hand, non-food inflation group recorded a year-on-year inflation rate of 13.6% in November 2017, relative to the 13.2% recorded in October 2017. Within the non – food group, five subgroups recorded more than the average year – on – year inflation for the group. These are; Transport (18.6%), clothing and footwear (18.3%) recreation and culture (17.1%), furnishing, household equipment and routine maintenance (15.2%) and miscellaneous goods and services (14.50%). However, the health subgroup recorded the lowest inflation rate of 5.5%.
In the month of December 2017, the cedi loss 0.08% against the US dollar relative to 0.82% % gain in November 2017 and 0.06% against the British Pound relative to 3.08% gain over the same period. It also loss 0.88% against the Euro in December 2017 as against 3.86 % gain in November 2017. On a whole, the cedi loss 0.30% of its value against the major trading currencies (Dollar, Pound, Euro and CFA) in December 2017. This is expected to have a pass through effect on prices. Aside the cedi depreciation, fuel prices have remained stable in the month of December 2017.
Considering the relative depreciation in the cedi, stable fuel prices, the usual high trade volumes during the festive period and the historical trend of inflation, GN Research analysts expect inflation to increase (between 11.75 and 12.10%) for the month of December 2017.
Figure 1: Year-on-Year Consumer Price Inflation (%), November 2016 to November 2017